Halifax House Price Index – Thoughts from the Industry
The latest Halifax data shows that UK house prices rose 4.7% in September compared with a year ago – the strongest rate since November 2022. Here are some thoughts from the Industry.
Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder at ASK Partners:
“We are continuing to see a consistent month-on-month rise in house prices, which signals a potential upward trend for the remainder of the year. The market is showing strong signs of resilience, even amid broader uncertainties. Much anticipation surrounds Labour’s plans to stimulate the housing sector, particularly regarding the construction of new homes and unlocking the planning system. If effective initiatives are announced in the coming months, they could provide the market with an additional boost, driving further growth and confidence in the sector.
“In the property investment world, rent values have seen sustained growth, positioning real estate as reasonably valued in comparison to gilts and presenting growth potential. In the realm of commercial real estate, we have seen values hit the bottom and confidence return. The market has picked up with opportunistic acquisitions of prime properties in prime locations.
“As a debt provider, we hope to support well-capitalised borrowers who understand their product and are looking at the best sites in prime locations with potential to add to their asset value. Following this strategy, we aim to bolster developers’ initiatives with the flexible underwriting approach that is necessary for navigating a changing market. This will enable us to continue to offer opportunities for the growing number of private individuals opting to invest in property debt.”
Guy Gittins, CEO of Foxtons:
“Yes most definitely this mirrors what we are seeing. After the shock interest rates rises in 2022, the market saw a very difficult 2023 and since the interest rates have now started to trickle down, we have certainly seen buyer confidence returning to the market, with new buyer numbers being well up along with viewings. Currently at Foxtons our pipeline of agreed sales is sitting at the highest level since before the referendum in 2016. So certainly, very positive news and quite a positive outlook for what may lie ahead, assuming we might see another rate drop.”
On the annual price rise recovering back to 2022 levels:
“I think certainly the numbers are starting to recover. You have to bear in mind how much of a difficult year 2023 was for the market in general. If you look at the London market the number of sales that were actually transacted in 2023 due to mortgage affordability, were at an all time low. You have to go all the way back to the global financial crisis to see the number of sales that low. The market is recovering, it certainly won’t be the best year we have ever seen but as each time we see a small interest rate drop, more buyers are returning from that back log last year.”
On First time buyers and plans for stamp duty relief due to be banned next year:
“I think it will be really sad if that does happen, we welcome anything that encourages first time buyers to be able to get on the ladder. If the government does reduce the stamp duty threshold, it will only make affordability harder. We would urge the government to really consider that move”
On interest rates:
“I think the market expects to see one more drop, it might be a very small one, but then it will continue to drop into 2025. It is really the driving factor behind people’s decisions. It was certainly, when we had the shock interest rate rises in 2022 budget and that was when the vast majority of buyers were not able to continue with their purchase.”
Tom Brown, Managing Director, Real Estate at Ingenious:
“Today’s data shows that the resilience and appeal of the UK property sector persist. Though we have seen higher inflation and sticky borrowing rates, we welcome the BoE’s focus on rate cutting and what will hopefully be the start of the much needed falling rate cycle.
“There’s clearly a significant and notable shortage of housing inventory across various price brackets and locations. Consequently, any decline in homeowner sales is likely counterbalanced by increased demand from renters and investors. This is a trend that is not going away. However, it’s crucial to recognise that the situation isn’t consistent nationwide or across different property pricing brackets. It’s helpful to delve into subsectors and regional dynamics when assessing opportunities, as a broad market view can be misleading. In the real estate sector, we’re seeing significant investment capital for assets for long-term rental. On account of their scale and buying power, these typically institutional investors face fewer disruptions than owner occupiers or small-scale Buy-to-let investors.
“At Ingenious, we continue to work closely with borrowers and investors, adapting to the dynamic market landscape and broader economic shifts, including those related to the climate crisis and changing lifestyles. We are expanding the reach of our development lending product to provide extended stabilisation terms for specialised developers in the rental sector. Furthermore, we’re introducing special lending terms for developers focused on reducing embedded carbon in their construction practices.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark:
“It is always encouraging to see enhanced levels of consumer confidence within the housing market, and we now appear to be firmly following a positive trend of growth once again. It is reassuring to witness the market moving forward from what has been a very fluid few years, where household affordability has been at near breaking point for many people. As the benefits of lower inflation and interest rates fully start to bed in, Propertymark is confident there will be further market growth as the year plays out. We are, however, keen to see the UK Government’s housebuilding programme spring into action to help alleviate the ongoing mismatch between supply and demand, as it is essential to keep pace with an ever-growing population.”
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