Bigger Boxing Day bounce expected, as prices to rise 2% in 2026
- Average new seller asking prices fall by 1.8% (-£6,695) this month to £358,138. This larger than usual December drop means that prices are 0.6% (-£2,059) lower at the end of 2025 than in 2024
- Bigger than usual Rightmove Boxing Day Bounce expected, as those who paused due to Budget uncertainty to join the post-Christmas boost in home-moving activity:
- Very early signs of post-Budget rebound, with number of top-end London sellers up by 24% week-on-week
- The uncertainty and gloom caused by rumours of property tax rises in November’s Budget from as early as August contributed to more subdued activity and pricing in the second half of the year:
- The number of new sellers coming to market in the first half of 2025 was 9% ahead of the first half of 2024, which reversed to 4% below 2024 across the second half of this year
- Buyer demand was 3% ahead of 2024 across the first half of the year, but 6% behind in the second half
- It’s still been a more positive year overall for sales, with the number of sales agreed 3% higher than in 2024
- Improved buyer affordability and plenty of choice for buyers suggests a market more like the encouraging first half of this year rather than the second half in 2026, with Rightmove predicting that new seller asking prices will rise by 2%:
- The average two-year fixed rate is now 4.33% compared to 5.08% last year. With house prices now cheaper than a year ago, rising average wages and a relaxing of lending criteria, we predict an activity rebound to kick start 2026
The average price of property coming to the market for sale has fallen by 1.8% (-£6,695) this month to £358,138. Prices usually fall in December, but this year’s price fall is larger than the ten-year average drop of 1.4%. It means that 2025 ends with average asking prices 0.6% (-£2,059) lower than a year ago, with price growth this year strongest in the North West of England (+2.6%), flat in London (0.0%) and lowest in the South West (-2.7%). Budget-related gloom and uncertainty have amplified the seasonal slowdown in prices and activity that we’d usually see in December and indeed contributed to a more subdued second half of the year overall.
Rightmove is now anticipating a bigger-than-usual Boxing Day bounce on its platform, as many of those who paused their plans due to Budget uncertainty join the traditional start of the busier home-moving season. Rightmove’s survey of over 10,000 potential movers revealed that nearly one in five were waiting for the outcome of the Budget to resume their moving plans. This large percentage underlines the impact of the Budget hiatus, and it’s likely that many of this group will be re-engaged by the number of new listings that are being held back ready for launch on or soon after Boxing Day. There are already some very early signs of a post-Budget market rebound in some segments and sectors of the market, though the usual festive slowdown has delayed a more widespread bounce-back. In London, the number of new sellers coming to market at the top-end, which was hardest hit by Budget speculation, was up by 24% in the week after the Budget compared with the week before, as some who were waiting for Budget clarity acted.
Rightmove predicts that the 2026 market will be more like the encouraging first half of this year, rather than the second half, where confidence was affected by Budget speculation. Buyer affordability is set to improve, and the good choice of homes for sale continues to run at a decade-high level. For these reasons, Rightmove predicts stronger housing market activity, leading to modest upwards price pressure, and causing the average price of property coming to the market for sale to rise by 2% in 2026.
“Lower price growth supported buyer affordability and drove activity in the first half of the year, even after the April stamp duty deadline in England. In the second half of 2025, uncertainty caused by rumours of property tax changes in November’s Budget swirled, some from as early as August. This had an impact on pricing and activity, as sellers tried to entice nervous buyers. The market will soon benefit from the traditional boost in home-moving activity from Boxing Day. Rightmove’s Boxing Day Bounce is an annual event where we see many begin or resume their plans to move after the distraction of Christmas. With the turkey and trimmings barely off the table, each year we see people heading straight to Rightmove to browse the fresh listings for sale and imagine how different next Christmas could look.”
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove
Rightmove’s data highlights the contrast between the first and second halves of 2025, with the unhelpful early Budget rumours unsettling the market and denting activity levels. The number of new sellers coming to market in the first half of 2025 was 9% ahead of the same period in 2024. By contrast, the number of new sellers coming to market in the second half of 2025 was 4% below the same period last year. It’s a similar story for buying activity. Buyer demand was 3% higher than 2024 across the first half of this year but turned around to be 6% behind across the second half. It’s still been a strong overall year for sales, with the number of sales agreed 3% higher than in 2024. It’s also important to note that the final months of this year compare to a strong period in 2024, which was fuelled by some movers trying to get deals completed before stamp duty rose in England from April . This has exacerbated the weaker year-on-year trends in the second half.
Rightmove predicts that average new seller asking prices will rise by 2% in 2026. Despite the quieter end to the year, we expect that 2026’s activity will be closer to the first half of this year than the second. Buyer choice remains good, while buyer affordability is set to improve. Rightmove’s mortgage tracker shows that the average two-year fixed mortgage rate is now 4.33%, an improvement compared with the average of 5.08% at this time last year. Relaxing of mortgage lending criteria, and wage growth continuing to run ahead of inflation, will also support affordability in 2026, especially when combined with the 2025 price dips.
“With market conditions supporting higher levels of activity , and a hopefully more certain economic environment, we forecast a better year for price growth in 2026 with a strong rebound in activity to kick start the year. However, with buyer choice remaining high, sellers will still need to come to the market at tempting prices to attract attention and do all that they can to ensure that their property is presented as well as possible. A more stable 2026 would be good for buyer confidence, which in turn would further boost activity levels, leading to a modest price increase.”
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove
Experts’ views
Matt Smith, Rightmove’s mortgage expert says: “We’re expecting to end the year with a Bank Rate cut, which would be good for confidence heading into the Rightmove Boxing Day Bounce. It’s unlikely that it will cause much movement in mortgage rates – the markets are very much expecting December’s cut to go ahead, and lenders have shown their hand early, cutting rates and competing to secure end-of-year business. The headline is that home-movers will be entering 2026 looking at cheaper average mortgage rates than they were at the beginning of 2025, helping affordability. Those who are seeing slightly lower house prices in their area compared to last year and may have also had an end-of-year pay rise, will see their affordability improved further. Many home-movers will also see that the amount that they can borrow has increased, as lender have been rolling out the Loan-To-Income and stress rate changes that were permitted by the regulator earlier this year.”
Claire Reynolds, UK Head of Sales at Strutt & Parker says: “The weeks of speculation leading up to the Autumn Budget certainly cooled the property market, especially for those making discretionary moves. However, the mood shifted almost instantly once the day finally arrived, with some evidence of a ‘Budget bounce’ in the past couple of weeks. Some sellers who had been waiting on the sidelines have decided to launch before Christmas – hoping to catch those scrolling through Rightmove between Christmas and New Year – while others are preparing to come to market in early January. Clarity has helped people become more decisive, and the Budget hasn’t deterred demand from either buyers or sellers. These signs point to a stronger market heading into 2026.”
Phillip Sandbach, Managing Director at John German Estate Agents in the Midlands says: “The year was progressing quite nicely, then along came the Budget speculation which really put the brakes on, particularly on the listings side. While sales were still being agreed across most of the market, the £1m + market which was the subject of a lot of speculation did dry up.
“Following the Budget, which in the end didn’t significantly impact the majority of the property market, we have seen a marked uptick in activity and a surge in exchanges too. With an anticipated drop in interest rates, we are expecting a very busy start to 2026.”
Jordan Halstead, CEO at Jordan & Halstead Estate Agents in Chester said: “2025 has felt like two different markets. The first half was busy and focused, but the last quarter slowed down as buyers and sellers paused to see what might come out of the Budget. Deals haven’t dried up, but people have taken longer to commit.
“Properly priced homes are still selling, the ones that have struggled have been the over-optimistic instructions. Buyers will pay fair value; they just won’t chase fantasy prices. Looking ahead, I think 2026 will be steady with small rises. Once the political uncertainty of the Budget has cleared and people feel confident that rates are stable, the market will start moving more freely again.”
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