REASONS TO BE MERRY – THE PROPERTY MARKET IS HOLDING UP
New research from leading residential property data specialists, TwentyEA reveals that supply problems are abating, with supply rising in every UK region, save Northern Ireland.
The largest rises are in the South West (11%) East Midlands (10%) and the Humber (9%). However, supply is up the least in the North East and Scotland (3% respectively), inner London (4%) and Wales and outer London (5% respectively).
TwentyEA Research: Stock Availability, November 2022:
| Row Labels | Nov-19 | Nov-21 | Nov-22 | Grand Total | Var on 21 | Var on 19 |
| East Midlands | 8143 | 7835 | 8585 | 24563 | 10% | 5% |
| East of England | 11402 | 11127 | 11969 | 34498 | 8% | 5% |
| Inner London | 7869 | 9406 | 9768 | 27043 | 4% | 24% |
| North East | 4352 | 4232 | 4366 | 12950 | 3% | 0% |
| North West | 11158 | 11054 | 12023 | 34235 | 9% | 8% |
| Northern Ireland | 2146 | 1793 | 1622 | 5561 | -10% | -24% |
| Outer London | 4832 | 5106 | 5382 | 15320 | 5% | 11% |
| Scotland | 6757 | 7187 | 7381 | 21325 | 3% | 9% |
| South East | 16958 | 16425 | 17795 | 51178 | 8% | 5% |
| South West | 10558 | 9789 | 10821 | 31168 | 11% | 2% |
| Wales | 4393 | 4350 | 4563 | 13306 | 5% | 4% |
| West Midlands | 8487 | 8025 | 8576 | 25088 | 7% | 1% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 7560 | 7655 | 8313 | 23528 | 9% | 10% |
| Grand Total | 104615 | 103984 | 111164 | 319763 | 7% | 6% |
On average, demand is down 17% in the UK since 2019. Scotland (-8%) and the North East (-2%) are faring well with only a small decrease in demand levels. However, demand has dropped significantly in Wales (-27%), while the East Midlands, Northern Ireland, Outer London and the South West have all seen drops of over 20% compared to 2019.
TwentyEA Research: Demand
| Row Labels | Nov-19 | Nov-21 | Nov-22 | Grand Total | Var on 21 | Var on 19 |
| East Midlands | 7092 | 7333 | 5440 | 19865 | -26% | -23% |
| East of England | 9545 | 10318 | 7731 | 27594 | -25% | -19% |
| Inner London | 5191 | 5926 | 4630 | 15747 | -22% | -11% |
| North East | 3258 | 3880 | 3181 | 10319 | -18% | -2% |
| North West | 10272 | 11234 | 8461 | 29967 | -25% | -18% |
| Northern Ireland | 2232 | 2225 | 1768 | 6225 | -21% | -21% |
| Outer London | 4233 | 4501 | 3265 | 11999 | -27% | -23% |
| Scotland | 7147 | 7353 | 6554 | 21054 | -11% | -8% |
| South East | 14381 | 16015 | 12048 | 42444 | -25% | -16% |
| South West | 10145 | 10544 | 8156 | 28845 | -23% | -20% |
| Wales | 4506 | 4599 | 3281 | 12386 | -29% | -27% |
| West Midlands | 7616 | 7883 | 6287 | 21786 | -20% | -17% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 7089 | 7781 | 5815 | 20685 | -25% | -18% |
| Grand Total | 92707 | 99592 | 76617 | 268916 | -23% | -17% |
In terms of the volume of price reductions, both Northern Ireland and the North East are still seeing lower levels of price reductions than in 2019 (down 10% and 19% respectively). However, Inner London tells quite a different story with price reductions up 95% on 2019 levels.
TwentyEA Research: Price Reductions
| Row Labels | Nov-19 | Nov-21 | Nov-22 | Grand Total | Var on 21 | Var on 19 |
| East Midlands | 4384 | 2267 | 5808 | 12459 | 156% | 32% |
| East of England | 7167 | 3664 | 8952 | 19783 | 144% | 25% |
| Inner London | 3923 | 5066 | 7660 | 16649 | 51% | 95% |
| North East | 2871 | 1178 | 2328 | 6377 | 98% | -19% |
| North West | 6170 | 3147 | 7245 | 16562 | 130% | 17% |
| Northern Ireland | 705 | 506 | 636 | 1847 | 26% | -10% |
| Outer London | 2919 | 2130 | 4016 | 9065 | 89% | 38% |
| Scotland | 2674 | 1554 | 2862 | 7090 | 84% | 7% |
| South East | 11545 | 5986 | 14053 | 31584 | 135% | 22% |
| South West | 5886 | 2676 | 7328 | 15890 | 174% | 24% |
| Wales | 2264 | 1244 | 2932 | 6440 | 136% | 30% |
| West Midlands | 4258 | 2312 | 5361 | 11931 | 132% | 26% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 4198 | 2191 | 4742 | 11131 | 116% | 13% |
| Grand Total | 58964 | 33921 | 73923 | 166808 | 118% | 25% |
Stuart Ducker, Strategic Solutions Director of TwentyCi comments: “Despite all the doom and gloom in the media, the UK property market is in good shape. To date, sellers have on average sold their properties for 100.79% of the initial listing price. Whilst this may not sound like a lot, this is £3,300 on the average (£417,499) property listing price.
“In November 2022, buyers had 521,000 properties to choose from still available for sale. This is 30% higher than last year, but it is still 15% lower than the normal market of 2019. Time to sell is also improving. In November 2022, half of all properties listed took only 29 days to sell. This is 34% faster than the 44 days it took in Nov 2019.
“Whilst there will be pressure on prices over the next 12 to 24 months, the picture is not straightforward. There are high equity and low mortgage debt levels in many regions, particularly London and the South East, which will create a cushion, limiting price falls.”
Colin Bradshaw, Managing Director of TwentyCi added: “We have to stop making short-term comparisons in the property market and look back over a few years to ensure that we are seeing the true picture. There are adverse factors impacting the UK property market with a long-time frame for things to play out, but we are not seeing any form of collapse currently.”
TwentyEA has revitalised its brand to ensure it is closely aligned with estate agents’ needs. The refreshed look showcases how the company’s market-leading data and analytics solutions can empower agents’ ability to generate new instructions, whilst enabling easy access to a single online platform. TwentyEA is a part of the TwentyCi Group which holds the UK’s most comprehensive source of home mover data compiled from over 4,000 data sources, tracking over 99% of all residential property listings.
For further information please visit https://news.twentyea.co.uk or email enquiries@twentyea.co.uk.
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