Rightmove House Price Index 15th July 2024
July 15, 2024
Political certainty and potential rate drop bode well for Autumn market
-
Average new seller asking prices drop by 0.4% (-£1,617) this month to £373,493, a bigger July drop than usual, as new sellers try to cut through the distractions of the General Election, sporting events and summer holiday season with a tempting price
-
Market activity has remained steady throughout the General Election campaign, and though there are signs that some would-be movers are waiting for the first Bank of England Base Rate cut, most are continuing with their moving plans:
-
The number of sales being agreed remains encouraging at 15% above the same period a year ago, when mortgage rates were approaching their peak
-
The number of new sellers coming to market is a steady 3% above last year
-
Buyer demand remains stable overall, but there’s a slight drop (-2%) in demand in the particularly affordability-stretched first-time buyer sector
-
-
Current market expectations are that the first Bank of England Base Rate cut may be as soon as August or September, which would be a boost for most home-movers and bodes well for the Autumn market:
-
The average five-year fixed rate is now 4.97%, which while below the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, is still much higher than the average of 2.51% in July 2021, before the first of 14 consecutive rate increases
-
The average price of property coming to the market for sale drops 0.4% (-£1,617) to £373,493. This is a bigger drop than the 20-year July average of -0.2%, as sellers try to capture the attention of buyers with a more tempting price heading into the thick of the summer holidays and the Olympics. Home-movers are dealing with more diversions than normal at this time of year, having just come through the distractions of the General Election campaign and the Euro football tournament, but prices remain stable overall at 0.4% higher than a year ago.
Despite concern among some that the General Election campaign would lead to a significant slowdown in home-moving activity, Rightmove’s millions of data points show that the vast majority of people have been getting on with their moves since the election was called. The political certainty of having the next government in place is likely to aid home-mover confidence heading into the second half of the year. What is still outstanding and of more pressing concern to home-buyers is when the first interest rate cut will be, with persistently high mortgage rates continuing to test affordability
“Three major uncertainties hanging over the property market at the start of the year were when the first interest rate cut would be, and the timing and the result of the General Election. We’ve now got the political certainty of a new government with a large majority, which we expect will help home-mover confidence. It’s very early days, but the new Chancellor’s immediate announcements on housebuilding targets and planning reform are positive signs that the government is keen to get going with its manifesto pledges. With many areas of the market that could be improved, we hope that the new government is able to get on with its plans and deliver sustainable housing policies that help the market in the medium to longer-term. One area of the market in need of more support is first-time buyers, many of whom have been stretched to the limit by high mortgage rates, with some also facing higher stamp duty fees when the current thresholds are set to revert in March 2025.”
Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science
The number of sales being agreed is now an encouraging 15% above the same period a year ago, when we were approaching the peak of mortgage rates. This compares to last month’s figure which was +6% above last year. This positive sales figure emphasises that serious home-hunters have been largely undeterred by the General Election and have been getting on with their moves. Similarly, the number of new sellers coming to market in the last four weeks is a steady 3% above last year, indicating that despite the uncertainty of an election, the vast majority of movers haven’t been put off.
A key concern for many home-movers is when the first Bank of England Base Rate cut will be, and there are signs that some pockets of movers are waiting for this before acting. Overall buyer demand, measured by the number of would-be buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale, has remained stable in the last four weeks when compared with this time last year. However, there’s a slight drop (-2%) in buyer demand in the particularly affordability-stretched first-time buyer sector, as some look to rate cuts to improve their affordability.
Some good news for home-movers is that the financial markets expect that the first Base Rate cut will be in August or September. Though this expectation could change over the coming weeks, it would be a boost for home-movers and market sentiment leading into Autumn. Rightmove’s weekly mortgage tracker shows that the average five-year fixed rate is now 4.97%, which while improved from the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, is still much higher than the average of 2.51% in July 2021, before the first of 14 consecutive Base Rate increases. Political certainty and a first rate cut for four years could together set the backdrop for a positive Autumn market.
“A Base Rate cut is expected to lead to lower mortgage rates, which could be the gamechanger for some would-be home-movers who are being held back by significantly higher monthly mortgage costs. The average five-year fixed rate is still nearly twice as high as it was before the first of 14 consecutive Bank of England rate increases in 2021, with rates staying elevated for much longer than many thought that they would. A first Base Rate cut for over four years, together with the new political certainty, could set the scene for a positive Autumn market, with improved affordability and a more confident outlook in the second half of the year.”
Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science
Experts’ views
“We have seen a positive first half in 2024, with the market feeling reminiscent of pre-COVID times, which continued despite the prominent issue of Brexit & General Election news. We’re experiencing healthy supply and demand levels; however, the lack of mid-market homes has meant that first-time sellers are finding their options limited. Despite this, valuations and instructions remain strong, backing up the historical data that shows elections have minimal market impact. With CPI inflation down to 2% and potential base rate reductions ahead, the outlook remains optimistic. The new government’s focus on maintaining low taxes, inflation, and mortgage rates, along with plans to improve the planning system and unlock much-needed housing development, was positive news highlighted by new Chancellor earlier this week, and we hope this might add to the positive outlook for a healthy Autumn market and the future.”
Matt Nicol, Managing Director at Nicol & Co. in Worcestershire
You May Also Enjoy
How to Transition from a Fixed-Term Tenancy to a Periodic Tenancy
Transitioning from a fixed-term tenancy to a periodic tenancy is a common occurrence in the UK rental market. It offers flexibility and convenience for both landlords and tenants by continuing the rental agreement on a rolling basis once the fixed term ends. Whether you’re a landlord managing a property or a tenant seeking clarity, Martin…
Read More 
Housing sales end 2024 on a high, but buyers more cautious about how much to pay for homes as mortgage rates drift higher
Buyers and sellers returned to the market over 2024 building a sales pipeline 30 per cent larger than a year ago with 283,000 homes worth £104bn progressing to a sale in 2025. This is the largest end of year total value for four years. House prices have returned to growth with the average house price…
Read More 
£21 million to live on UK’s most expensive street
· Knightsbridge in London now the priciest UK street · The UK’s 10 most expensive streets all in the capital, with an average price tag of £16.5 million · East Road in Weybridge the most expensive address outside of London · Priciest UK properties are 60 times more than a typical home Lloyds has revealed…
Read More 
Breaking Property News 20/12/24
Daily bite-sized proptech and property news in partnership with Proptech-X. Why estate and letting agents must embrace innovative technology in 2025 As we step into 2025, the UK property market continues to shift, and estate agents face mounting pressure to meet the evolving expectations of buyers and sellers. The days when static images sufficed…
Read More
Breaking Property News 19/12/24
Daily bite-sized proptech and property news in partnership with Proptech-X. High street Auctions’ initiative launches to revive Britain’s town centres This month the UK Government rolls out its highly anticipated ‘High Street Auctions’ scheme, a flagship measure of the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023. This initiative grants local authorities the power to take…
Read More 
Moving Up In The World: Finding Your Dream Home
Finding your dream home is one of life’s most exciting and transformative experiences. Whether you’re looking to upsize, relocate, or finally purchase that ideal property you’ve always envisioned, the journey is both thrilling and filled with important decisions. As you embark on this path, it’s essential to plan carefully, consider your priorities, and approach the…
Read More