Rightmove’s Autumn Budget analysis
Key data ahead of the Budget
· If the current stamp duty thresholds are not made permanent during the budget, the average first-time buyer will pay £3,538 in stamp duty compared with nothing now:
· The percentage of all home-movers that will be exempt from stamp duty will decrease from 28% to 5% (by lowering from £250,000 to £125,000)
· The percentage of first-time buyers that will be exempt from stamp duty will decrease from 61% to 40% (by lowering from £425,000 to £300,000)
· A Rightmove survey of over 34,000 people identifies what people would like to see from the government:
· Simplifying the home-buying process (44%) was the most important housing focus that existing home-owners thought the new government should focus on delivering
· More support for first-time buyers (60%) was the most important factor for renters
· Reforming the stamp duty system (46%) came out on top for landlords, while introducing legislation to improve the energy efficiency of rental homes came last (12%)
· Market activity remains strong leading into the Budget:
· The number of sales agreed is up 29% year-on-year
· The number of people sending enquiries to estate agents is up by 17%
· The number of available homes for sale is up by 12%
· Landlords face uncertainty over upcoming EPC regulations and green upgrades:
· In the rental market, an estimated 2.9 million properties need to be improved to reach an EPC C rating, which would cost £23.4 billion – around £8,074 per property for a landlord
· Half of landlords (50%) are concerned that the government will introduce costly charges for not meeting EPC requirements
Further comments and information
On reverting the Stamp Duty thresholds from April 1st 2025:
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property expert says: “The rumours that “nil rate” and first-time buyer stamp duty thresholds will indeed be reverting to previous levels as of March 2025, rather than be held at their current rates, will no doubt be seen as an unwelcome additional cost by many buyers looking to make their move in 2025 – and potentially to those currently in the process.
“With the threshold for the nil rate, the rate at which no stamp duty is charged for home-movers, due to fall from £250,000 to £125,000, anyone purchasing a property over this amount could face paying up to £2,500 more in stamp duty land tax. Meanwhile, the threshold rate at which first-time buyers do not pay stamp duty is likely to fall from £425,000 to £300,000. If a first-time buyer buys a property at the average UK price of £370,759 they will pay £3,538 in stamp duty from March 2025, compared with nothing now.”
What do people want?
A Rightmove survey of over 34,000 people identifies what people would like to see from the government.
Home-owners
Simplifying the home-buying process (44%) was the most important housing focus that existing home-owners thought the new government should focus on delivering, followed by reforming the stamp duty system (43%) and incentives to help make green improvements (41%).
Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property expert says: “Buying a home is a complicated process, somewhat understandable given the large sums of money involved but there is lots of room to improve the fundamentals of that process. It takes around 7 months from advertising a property for sale to completing the transaction, which is quite extraordinary. It’s frustrating, can be costly, and is a significant source of nail-biting stress for both home-movers and agents that agreed sales are not turned into completed transactions more quickly. Innovations which can speed up and simplify the home-buying process should be supported and encouraged.”
Renters
More support for first-time buyers (60%) was the most important factor to renters, that they would like to see the new government deliver. This was followed by more mortgage schemes to help people afford to move (55%) and simplifying the home-buying process (47%).
Matt Smith, Rightmove’s mortgage expert, says that by reviewing the affordability criteria for home-buyers in a responsible way, more options could open up for first-time buyers.
Matt says: “Market regulation has had its intended impact to help prevent people from overstretching themselves when taking out a mortgage. It also means that there are many people out there, particularly first-time buyers, who find themselves priced out of the home that they want because they can’t borrow enough or pass the stressed rate test. There are several hurdles for first-time buyers to clear, made more difficult with higher mortgage rates, and payments outpacing wage growth.
“Lenders, both new entrants to the market and major lenders, have looked at how they can work within the existing framework to provide more support to first-time buyers which has been really encouraging to see. We think there is the opportunity for the government to help unlock greater long-term affordability in a responsible way through a wider review of affordability criteria alongside the regulators and lenders.”
Landlords
Reforming the stamp duty system (46%) came out on top for landlords, followed by simplifying the home-buying process (42%) and incentives to help homeowners to make green improvements (39%).
Bottom of the list for landlords was introducing legislation to improve the energy efficiency of rental homes (12%). The government plans to make it mandatory for all rental properties to have a minimum Energy Performance Certificate rating of a C by 2030, and separate Rightmove research has revealed concerns about the potential costs to landlords in reaching this target.
Christian Balshen, Rightmove’s Head of Lettings, suggests that helping landlords through both financial incentives, and urgent clarity over what will be expected of them, could help.
Christian says: “Landlords, like all investors, value certainty about the cost of their investments. We know that over half of landlords are concerned that the government is going to introduce costly charges if green improvements are not made. Therefore, clarity must come very quickly on what is likely to be expected of landlords and any funding that may be available to them. Without this clarity, there’s a growing risk that more landlords may choose to exit the market.
“We’d ask the government to promptly offer more detailed information on both fronts – support for landlords, making necessary energy efficiency improvements, and the structure of new homebuyer initiatives – before investor confidence is further eroded.”
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