House price growth weakest since 2013

February 14, 2019

2018 saw the slowest UK annual growth in house prices since 2013. While annual growth in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all strengthened in 2018 compared to 2017, England experienced a slowdown.

Annual house price growth (%), Countries of the UK, 2013 to 2018

United Kingdom

England

Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland
2013

2.6

2.9

0.4

0.4

-2.8
2014

8.0

8.3

4.7

5.0

7.7
2015

6.0

6.8

4.0

2.8

7.3
2016

7.0

7.7

1.4

4.2

6.5
2017

4.5

4.8

2.9

4.3

3.8
2018

3.3

3.0

4.6

4.8

4.6

 

The North and the Midlands experienced a slight slowdown between 2017 and 2018, but this weakening growth was more evident in the South and East of England with house prices in London falling over the year in 2018.

Figure 1: Annual house price growth (%), by English region, 2017 and 2018

A similar picture is observed when looking at the local authority level. Strong annual growth in the Forest of Dean, Newport and Torfaen are likely linked to the abolition of the Severn Bridge tolls making it more affordable for those who work in Bristol to live on the opposite side of the River Severn. In Scotland, strong growth in West Dunbartonshire may be due to the areas direct trains to both Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Top 5 UK Local Authorities, by annual growth in 2018

Area Name

Average Price (£)

Annual growth (%)
Forest of Dean

235,833

11.0
Newport

175,447

10.5
Na h-Eileanan Siar

107,787

9.5
Torfaen

141,055

9.4
West Dunbartonshire

106,795

9.4

 

London boroughs dominate the areas where prices have fallen over the year. The Bank of England November inflation report highlights that the slowdown in the London market since mid-2016 is probably due to the area being disproportionately affected by regulatory and tax changes, and also by lower net migration from the EU.

Bottom 5 UK Local Authorities, by annual growth in 2018

Area Name Average Price (£) Annual growth (%)
City of London

787,027

-7.1
Hammersmith and Fulham

728,072

-3.8
City of Aberdeen

159,243

-3.5
Wandsworth

597,641

-3.3
Tower Hamlets

445,004

-3.1

Note: The figures in this article are annual estimate and will therefore show different annual growth rates and average prices to our monthly statistics.

HM Land Registery

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