Could the Autumn Budget dent property values?
Autumn Budget uncertainty could see house prices continue to fall
The latest research by nationwide cash buying company and quick sale specialists, Springbok Properties, has found that those looking to sell could see the value of their home fall over the remainder of the year, as historic data shows that major fiscal events such as Autumn Budget often trigger short-term price declines in the housing market.
Springbok Properties analysed the last seven major economic statements, including both Spring and Autumn Budgets as well as Government growth plans, comparing the rate of house price growth in the month immediately following each announcement, three months after, and a year after.
The research by Springbok Properties shows that, on average, house prices have fallen by -0.10% in the month following the last seven major economic statements and by -0.40% over the three months that follow.
However, the long-term picture remains more positive, with house prices rising by an average of 2.65% over the year following these announcements once the market has had time to stabilise.
A range of factors could weigh on prices in the short term. High borrowing costs and affordability pressures remain a key issue for buyers, while potential tax changes, a weaker economic outlook, and general market sentiment could further dampen demand. Sellers are already facing an overhang of stock in some areas, leading to slower transaction times and a growing number of price reductions.
Shepherd Ncube, CEO of Springbok Properties, commented:
“The upcoming Autumn Statement comes at a critical time for the property market. With interest rates still elevated and confidence fragile, even the hint of new fiscal changes can cause both buyers and sellers to hesitate. History shows that these major announcements tend to spark a period of adjustment, and with house prices already dipping, we’re likely to see that continue through the end of the year.
For those who need to sell, the challenge is that waiting for certainty could mean selling for less. Quick sale routes allow homeowners to act decisively before further market softening, providing the speed and certainty they need in uncertain times. For those who can afford to wait, history suggests the market does recover once the dust settles, but not everyone has that luxury. In many cases, sellers are caught between a rock and a hard place, and that’s exactly where alternative selling solutions can make all the difference.”
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