Developers lose confidence ahead of Autumn Budget
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, believes that growing uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget has left many developers hesitant to progress new housing projects, with confidence falling sharply as fears of new property taxes, rising costs, and ongoing planning challenges weigh heavily on the sector.
The latest survey of UK property developers, commissioned by specialist lender Octane Capital ahead of the Autumn Statement*, shows that 64% of developers are not confident about starting new residential developments over the next 12 months, while a further 28% said they were only cautiously confident. Just 8% said their pipeline was progressing as normal, demonstrating the clear impact that policy uncertainty is already having on delivery.
The survey highlights widespread concern that potential new taxes could further dampen activity in an already fragile development environment. Over a quarter (28%) of developers said they were very concerned about the prospect of an annual or land-value tax on high-value property or development land, while a further 35% shared concerns, but said the impact would depend on the thresholds and rates applied.
In addition, 43% said that potential increases to Capital Gains Tax or new levies on corporate property disposals would cause them to delay sales and slow development turnover, further restricting the pace of delivery. Nearly a quarter (23%) said they would instead look to accelerate disposals ahead of the implementation, highlighting the disruption such speculation is already causing.
When asked what form of incentive would make the greatest difference in helping the Government meet its 1.5 million new homes target, over half (54%) said the main barrier remains the planning system rather than taxation. However, developers also pointed to the value of financial incentives, with 14% calling for reduced SDLT or land transaction costs for developers, another 14% backing tax relief on land acquisition or build costs, and 9% identifying cheaper development finance as the most effective means of support.
The findings further underline how planning reform remains at the heart of the issue. When asked how much a reduction in levies or a streamlined planning process would influence their pipeline confidence, just over half said it would help – with 16% saying it would significantly enable more projects and 36% saying it would slightly help viability. However, 48% said that deeper structural challenges such as funding and taxation continue to restrict delivery regardless.
When asked to look ahead to next year, almost half of developers (48%) said they expect the Autumn Budget to restrict development activity in 2026, while only 15% believe it will support the sector and 36% think it will have little overall effect.
The message from developers to the Government ahead of the Autumn Budget is clear. A third (33%) said the top priority should be to focus on planning reform and infrastructure investment, while 19% urged policymakers to avoid new taxes that deter investment and land acquisition.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, commented:
“Confidence among developers has clearly weakened ahead of the Autumn Budget, and it’s easy to see why. Speculation around new taxes, higher capital gains charges, or potential land levies is creating a holding pattern across much of the sector. Developers thrive on certainty, but right now that’s in short supply.
While planning reform remains the key to unlocking housing delivery, access to flexible and efficient finance is equally important in maintaining momentum during periods of uncertainty. Specialist lenders play a vital role in bridging gaps, refinancing projects, and ensuring viable schemes don’t grind to a halt while developers wait for policy clarity.
If the Government truly wants to hit its housing targets, it must focus on measures that support delivery – whether that’s cutting bureaucracy, reducing transaction costs, or widening access to development funding. A well-targeted Stamp Duty reform could provide a near-term boost to buyer demand, helping to restore confidence throughout the housing pipeline.”
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