Mortgage market activity forecast to climb
The latest analysis from award-winning mortgage adviser, Alexander Hall, has revealed that mortgage market momentum has been building steadily over the last three years, with average monthly approvals for both house purchases and remortgaging increasing, and further growth forecast across the first half of the year.
Alexander Hall analysed historic Bank of England data on mortgage approvals, focusing on the average monthly level of approvals for house purchases and remortgaging, before producing forecasts for H1 based on current market conditions, including the December base rate reduction and the continued stability provided by a hold so far this year.
House purchase approvals strengthening
The analysis shows that average monthly approvals for house purchases have increased consistently in recent years. In 2023, the market saw an average of 48,088 approvals per month. This climbed to 62,876 per month in 2024 and strengthened further to 64,164 per month in 2025.
While approvals dipped during Q4 of last year, largely due to seasonal factors, Alexander Hall forecasts that this slowdown will reverse during the first half of the year.
In Q1, average monthly house purchase approvals are estimated to increase by 1% per month, hitting 62,286 per month on average. A further estimated 1% rise per month during Q2 is also forecast to push approval activity amongst homebuyers to an average of 64,196 approvals per month.
Remortgaging activity accelerating
At the same time, remortgaging activity has also been trending upwards.
Average monthly remortgage approvals stood at 29,658 in 2023, rising modestly to 30,492 in 2024 before increasing more significantly to 36,747 in 2025.
Alexander Hall estimates that activity is now set to strengthen meaningfully in 2026, as borrowers coming to the end of fixed terms look to capitalise on improved rates and greater product availability.
For Q1 2026, average monthly remortgage approvals are forecast to reach 41,547, representing an estimated 5.4% increase in the average monthly rate of growth compared to the previous quarter. Q2 is expected to bring a further estimated 3.5% average monthly uplift, with average monthly remortgaging approvals reaching 48,257.
Richard Merrett, Managing Director of Alexander Hall, commented:
“Over the last three years we’ve seen a clear strengthening of mortgage market activity, both from those purchasing homes and those remortgaging and, while seasonal fluctuations remain a natural part of the cycle, the underlying trend is one of resilience and strength.
With competitive rates and lenders continuing to enhance both their product range and affordability criteria, we expect this positive momentum to continue through the first half of the year.
It’s not just homebuyers who are benefitting, borrowers approaching the end of their fixed term are increasingly recognising that conditions are more favourable than they were 12 to 18 months ago, and that is feeding through into higher levels of activity.”
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