Homebuyers hold tight ahead of Autumn Budget
but should they wait to make their move?
The latest research from Yopa has revealed that mortgage market activity has reversed in recent months, with approvals falling at an average monthly rate of 3.9% over the last four months, having previously increased by an average of 1.5% per month over the previous four months, suggesting that homebuyers could be holding tight ahead of the Autumn Budget.
However, further analysis by the full-service estate agency suggests that those waiting to see what the Government has in store are unlikely to face an immediate mortgage rate penalty for doing so, with both two and five-year fixed rates remaining largely unchanged, on average, in the month following the last eight major fiscal events.
Yopa analysed mortgage approval levels since the start of 2026, before looking at how average two and five-year fixed mortgage rates have changed from the month before to the month after each of the last eight Budgets and major financial statements.
Mortgage approvals reverse as buyers hold tight
During the first four months of 2026, mortgage approvals increased at an average monthly rate of 1.5%.
However, this trend has since reversed. Between May and August, mortgage approvals fell at an average monthly rate of 3.9%, with the latest monthly total of 54,918 sitting 15.5% below the 65,021 approvals recorded in April.
With the Autumn Budget now approaching, some buyers may be choosing to delay their plans until they have greater clarity on what the Government intends to do to support the property market.
But while waiting could allow buyers to take advantage of any measures announced by the Government, there is also the question of whether delaying a purchase could leave them exposed to higher mortgage costs.
Little immediate mortgage rate movement following previous fiscal events
Yopa’s analysis suggests that, historically, mortgage rates have remained largely static in the immediate aftermath of major fiscal announcements.
Across the last eight Budgets and financial statements analysed, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 4.82% in the month before, compared with 4.76% in the month after – an average reduction of just 0.05 percentage points.
The picture is even more static for five-year fixed products, with the average rate moving from 4.51% in the month before to 4.49% in the month after, a reduction of just 0.01 percentage points.
Based on average house prices and a 75% loan-to-value mortgage, the average monthly repayment on a two-year fix was also £13 lower in the month following the last eight fiscal events, while those taking a five-year fix paid £8 less per month on average.
Of course, fiscal announcements aren’t entirely without risk.
The market reaction following the September 2022 mini-Budget demonstrated just how quickly borrowing conditions can change when financial markets react negatively to government policy.
However, Yopa’s analysis suggests that across the more typical Budgets and financial statements that have followed, buyers have generally seen little immediate movement in mortgage rates from the month before to the month after.
Waiting for the Budget could pay off – but don’t hang around
For those already considering a purchase, this suggests that waiting to see what the Government announces at the Autumn Budget may carry relatively little risk when it comes to an immediate increase in mortgage costs.
But buyers may also want to be ready to act once the Government has shown its hand.
Should the Budget succeed in stimulating buyer demand, particularly through measures aimed at improving affordability, those who continue to sit on the sidelines could find themselves returning to a more competitive market, with greater competition for available homes and less room to negotiate on price.
Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa, commented:
“Mortgage approvals have clearly lost momentum in recent months and, with the Autumn Budget fast approaching, it’s understandable that some buyers may be sitting tight to see whether the Government provides them with a reason to make their move.
The good news is that history suggests there is little harm in waiting a few more weeks. Across the last eight major fiscal events, mortgage rates have remained largely static in the month immediately following, so buyers haven’t generally paid a financial penalty for waiting to see what the Government has in store.
That said, anyone already in a position to buy shouldn’t necessarily hang around once the Chancellor has shown their hand. If the Budget does successfully stimulate demand, the greater risk could be returning to a market where you’re competing with a renewed wave of buyers, potentially reducing your negotiating power and putting further upward pressure on property prices.”
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Breaking Property News 5/10/26
