Current market conditions would still take London nearly three years to lose top dog property market status

Independent London estate agent, Benham and Reeves, has looked at the decline of the London market since the Brexit vote in relation to other regional cities that have seen more buoyant price growth, to see if London really is on its knees, or if this has been exaggerated.

Benham and Reeves looked at the month by month price change since June 2016 across the London market, as well as more than 20 other major UK cities. Working on a worst-case scenario, whereby Brexit inspired market uncertainty persists for the long-term, Benham and Reeves projected previous monthly market movements forward from today’s average house price to see at which point London would be overtaken as the UK’s most expensive city to buy a property.

The research shows that even with current market instability, it would take two years and 10 months before London saw the average house price slip below the closest competition – Oxford. London’s current average house price is £468,120 while in Oxford, property costs an average of £384,433. So it would take another 34 months before Oxford overtakes London with an average house price of £468,766 to London’s average of £465,753.

The next closest is Cambridge, although this wouldn’t happen until February 2023, with Edinburgh the next contender, overtaking London with an average house price of £457,465 by April 2027. Manchester and Bournemouth are also in contention overtaking London’s property market price by 2034.

The slowest would be Newcastle where growth since the vote wouldn’t see the city overtake London until after 2070. With the market in Aberdeen suffering greatly since the vote, it’s unlikely the city would ever overtake London despite market uncertainty hurting the capital.

Director of Benham and Reeves, Marc von Grundherr, commented:

“London is and has always been the jewel in the crown of the UK property market and while these projections predict at what point in the future this might cease to be the case, the point is that it is very unlikely such an event will ever take place.

Yes, we’ve seen market uncertainty hurt the London house price growth to some extent while other regional cities have performed far better. However, what we are demonstrating here is that despite this, despite all that has been thrown at it, it would still take nearly three more years of current market conditions before London would slip from property pole position.

This really does highlight the resilience of the London market and the reality, in any case, is that a bounce back to previous health is a far surer bet than the likes of Oxford or Cambridge becoming the new pinnacle of UK homeownership.”

Projection Rankings

Rank
Location
Year Avg H.P reaches/surpasses London based on trends since Brexit vote.
1
Oxford
2022
2
Cambridge
2023
3
Edinburgh
2027
4
Manchester
2034
5
Bournemouth
2034
6
Bristol
2034
7
Newport
2034
8
Birmingham
2035
9
Portsmouth
2039
10
Cardiff
2039
11
Nottingham
2040
12
Derry City and Strabane
2040
13
Leeds
2041
14
Leicester
2042
15
Glasgow
2043
16
Sheffield
2050
17
Liverpool
2053
18
Southampton
2053
19
Swansea
2053
20
Lisburn and Castlereagh
2054
21
Plymouth
2056
22
Belfast
2062
23
Newcastle
post-2070
24
Aberdeen
No intersect

Example of projections methodology

Key
Current market data from the Land Registry between the EU Referendum and now – June 2016 to March 2019.
Projected price changes using the monthly change from current market data applied to the current average house price to ascertain potential market movement.
The point at which London is overtaken by Oxford as the most expensive city in the UK.
Date
London
Monthly Change
Oxford
Monthly Change
01/06/16
£468,120
£384,433
01/07/16
£475,530
1.58%
£402,308
4.65%
01/08/16
£471,957
-0.75%
£419,571
4.29%
01/09/16
£471,767
-0.04%
£419,363
-0.05%
01/10/16
£471,008
-0.16%
£416,745
-0.62%
01/11/16
£470,854
-0.03%
£413,473
-0.79%
01/12/16
£472,374
0.32%
£409,499
-0.96%
01/01/17
£475,619
0.69%
£412,321
0.69%
01/02/17
£476,717
0.23%
£405,888
-1.56%
01/03/17
£475,442
-0.27%
£410,782
1.21%
01/04/17
£479,790
0.91%
£407,918
-0.70%
01/05/17
£480,902
0.23%
£412,860
1.21%
01/06/17
£480,152
-0.16%
£411,177
-0.41%
01/07/17
£488,527
1.74%
£413,515
0.57%
01/08/17
£487,085
-0.30%
£415,529
0.49%
01/09/17
£483,833
-0.67%
£419,693
1.00%
01/10/17
£481,762
-0.43%
£420,813
0.27%
01/11/17
£476,290
-1.14%
£417,259
-0.84%
01/12/17
£476,848
0.12%
£409,123
-1.95%
01/01/18
£479,772
0.61%
£395,731
-3.27%
01/02/18
£477,860
-0.40%
£396,161
0.11%
01/03/18
£472,357
-1.15%
£396,482
0.08%
01/04/18
£476,876
0.96%
£399,939
0.87%
01/05/18
£478,355
0.31%
£403,759
0.96%
01/06/18
£480,012
0.35%
£412,255
2.10%
01/07/18
£485,001
1.04%
£414,622
0.57%
01/08/18
£479,991
-1.03%
£425,603
2.65%
01/09/18
£476,631
-0.70%
£426,569
0.23%
01/10/18
£480,321
0.77%
£422,624
-0.92%
01/11/18
£474,258
-1.26%
£408,781
-3.28%
01/12/18
£473,802
-0.10%
£406,682
-0.51%
01/01/19
£471,336
-0.52%
£412,824
1.51%
01/02/19
£464,998
-1.34%
£411,835
-0.24%
01/03/19
£463,283
-0.37%
£414,972
0.76%
01/04/19
£470,616
1.58%
£434,268
4.65%
01/05/19
£467,081
-0.75%
£452,902
4.29%
01/06/19
£466,892
-0.04%
£452,677
-0.05%
01/07/19
£466,142
-0.16%
£449,851
-0.62%
01/08/19
£465,989
-0.03%
£446,319
-0.79%
01/09/19
£467,493
0.32%
£442,030
-0.96%
01/10/19
£470,705
0.69%
£445,076
0.69%
01/11/19
£471,791
0.23%
£438,132
-1.56%
01/12/19
£470,529
-0.27%
£443,414
1.21%
01/01/20
£474,833
0.91%
£440,324
-0.70%
01/02/20
£475,933
0.23%
£445,658
1.21%
01/03/20
£475,191
-0.16%
£443,841
-0.41%
01/04/20
£483,479
1.74%
£446,364
0.57%
01/05/20
£482,052
-0.30%
£448,539
0.49%
01/06/20
£478,833
-0.67%
£453,033
1.00%
01/07/20
£476,784
-0.43%
£454,243
0.27%
01/08/20
£471,369
-1.14%
£450,406
-0.84%
01/09/20
£471,921
0.12%
£441,623
-1.95%
01/10/20
£474,815
0.61%
£427,168
-3.27%
01/11/20
£472,922
-0.40%
£427,633
0.11%
01/12/20
£467,476
-1.15%
£427,978
0.08%
01/01/21
£471,948
0.96%
£431,711
0.87%
01/02/21
£473,412
0.31%
£435,834
0.96%
01/03/21
£475,052
0.35%
£445,004
2.10%
01/04/21
£479,990
1.04%
£447,560
0.57%
01/05/21
£475,032
-1.03%
£459,413
2.65%
01/06/21
£471,706
-0.70%
£460,456
0.23%
01/07/21
£475,358
0.77%
£456,197
-0.92%
01/08/21
£469,358
-1.26%
£441,255
-3.28%
01/09/21
£468,906
-0.10%
£438,988
-0.51%
01/10/21
£466,466
-0.52%
£445,619
1.51%
01/11/21
£460,193
-1.34%
£444,551
-0.24%
01/12/21
£458,496
-0.37%
£447,938
0.76%
01/01/22
£465,753
1.58%
£468,766
4.65%

 

Properganda PR

National and local media coverage for property businesses. Journo quotes delivered in minutes.

You May Also Enjoy

Property for sale
Estate Agent Talk

5 Top Tips for Increasing the Value of Your Home

For some people, buying a home, working on it and then selling it is the primary goal to keep upgrading homes. Whether you choose to re-decorate or re-model the property, a renovation of your home can help to keep the ball rolling towards enabling you to secure a profit on your next house sale. Whilst…
Read More
Breaking News

Sdlt Hike Spurs Record Home Sales by Auction

iamproperty is crediting the recent Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) hike and rising consumer awareness as the reasons behind a record-breaking quarter for Auction. The market conditions led to an 11% increase in the number of iamproperty Auction sales in the first quarter of the year, compared with the same period last year. iamproperty’s Partner…
Read More
Breaking News

Changes to mortgage affordability to support sales as house price growth cools

House price growth has slowed to 1.6 per cent annually, down from 1.9 per cent at the end of 2024, as buyer interest cools and the number of homes for sale continues to expand Buyer demand is one per cent higher than a year ago, while the number of homes for sale is 12 per…
Read More
Love or Hate Rightmove
Breaking News

Rents rise to new record despite boost in supply

The average advertised rent of homes outside of London has risen to a new record this quarter of £1,349 per calendar month (pcm), however it is the smallest increase in rents at this time of year since 2020: London rents also rise by 0.1% (+£3) to a 14th consecutive new record of £2,698 pcm this quarter…
Read More
Breaking News

Size Matters in Planning

The House Builders Association (HBA), the housebuilding division of the National Federation of Builders (NFB) has reignited its campaign for the planning system to adopt five clear site size definitions, replacing the current, arbitrary ones of ‘Minor’ (one to ten homes) and ‘Major’ (ten and above). Richard Beresford, Chief Executive of the NFB, said: “In…
Read More
Breaking News

Popping the Asking Price Bubble

Where in the Uk Can Buyers Snap Up Property Bargains and Where Properties Go for a Premium Above Asking Price   New research from fast selling property company, Upstix has uncovered the UK’s most surprising postcodes for snapping up a property at bargain prices this year, highlighting a widening gap between sellers’ expectations and the…
Read More