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Current market conditions would still take London nearly three years to lose top dog property market status

Independent London estate agent, Benham and Reeves, has looked at the decline of the London market since the Brexit vote in relation to other regional cities that have seen more buoyant price growth, to see if London really is on its knees, or if this has been exaggerated.

Benham and Reeves looked at the month by month price change since June 2016 across the London market, as well as more than 20 other major UK cities. Working on a worst-case scenario, whereby Brexit inspired market uncertainty persists for the long-term, Benham and Reeves projected previous monthly market movements forward from today’s average house price to see at which point London would be overtaken as the UK’s most expensive city to buy a property.

The research shows that even with current market instability, it would take two years and 10 months before London saw the average house price slip below the closest competition – Oxford. London’s current average house price is £468,120 while in Oxford, property costs an average of £384,433. So it would take another 34 months before Oxford overtakes London with an average house price of £468,766 to London’s average of £465,753.

The next closest is Cambridge, although this wouldn’t happen until February 2023, with Edinburgh the next contender, overtaking London with an average house price of £457,465 by April 2027. Manchester and Bournemouth are also in contention overtaking London’s property market price by 2034.

The slowest would be Newcastle where growth since the vote wouldn’t see the city overtake London until after 2070. With the market in Aberdeen suffering greatly since the vote, it’s unlikely the city would ever overtake London despite market uncertainty hurting the capital.

Director of Benham and Reeves, Marc von Grundherr, commented:

“London is and has always been the jewel in the crown of the UK property market and while these projections predict at what point in the future this might cease to be the case, the point is that it is very unlikely such an event will ever take place.

Yes, we’ve seen market uncertainty hurt the London house price growth to some extent while other regional cities have performed far better. However, what we are demonstrating here is that despite this, despite all that has been thrown at it, it would still take nearly three more years of current market conditions before London would slip from property pole position.

This really does highlight the resilience of the London market and the reality, in any case, is that a bounce back to previous health is a far surer bet than the likes of Oxford or Cambridge becoming the new pinnacle of UK homeownership.”

Projection Rankings

Rank
Location
Year Avg H.P reaches/surpasses London based on trends since Brexit vote.
1
Oxford
2022
2
Cambridge
2023
3
Edinburgh
2027
4
Manchester
2034
5
Bournemouth
2034
6
Bristol
2034
7
Newport
2034
8
Birmingham
2035
9
Portsmouth
2039
10
Cardiff
2039
11
Nottingham
2040
12
Derry City and Strabane
2040
13
Leeds
2041
14
Leicester
2042
15
Glasgow
2043
16
Sheffield
2050
17
Liverpool
2053
18
Southampton
2053
19
Swansea
2053
20
Lisburn and Castlereagh
2054
21
Plymouth
2056
22
Belfast
2062
23
Newcastle
post-2070
24
Aberdeen
No intersect

Example of projections methodology

Key
Current market data from the Land Registry between the EU Referendum and now – June 2016 to March 2019.
Projected price changes using the monthly change from current market data applied to the current average house price to ascertain potential market movement.
The point at which London is overtaken by Oxford as the most expensive city in the UK.
Date
London
Monthly Change
Oxford
Monthly Change
01/06/16
£468,120
£384,433
01/07/16
£475,530
1.58%
£402,308
4.65%
01/08/16
£471,957
-0.75%
£419,571
4.29%
01/09/16
£471,767
-0.04%
£419,363
-0.05%
01/10/16
£471,008
-0.16%
£416,745
-0.62%
01/11/16
£470,854
-0.03%
£413,473
-0.79%
01/12/16
£472,374
0.32%
£409,499
-0.96%
01/01/17
£475,619
0.69%
£412,321
0.69%
01/02/17
£476,717
0.23%
£405,888
-1.56%
01/03/17
£475,442
-0.27%
£410,782
1.21%
01/04/17
£479,790
0.91%
£407,918
-0.70%
01/05/17
£480,902
0.23%
£412,860
1.21%
01/06/17
£480,152
-0.16%
£411,177
-0.41%
01/07/17
£488,527
1.74%
£413,515
0.57%
01/08/17
£487,085
-0.30%
£415,529
0.49%
01/09/17
£483,833
-0.67%
£419,693
1.00%
01/10/17
£481,762
-0.43%
£420,813
0.27%
01/11/17
£476,290
-1.14%
£417,259
-0.84%
01/12/17
£476,848
0.12%
£409,123
-1.95%
01/01/18
£479,772
0.61%
£395,731
-3.27%
01/02/18
£477,860
-0.40%
£396,161
0.11%
01/03/18
£472,357
-1.15%
£396,482
0.08%
01/04/18
£476,876
0.96%
£399,939
0.87%
01/05/18
£478,355
0.31%
£403,759
0.96%
01/06/18
£480,012
0.35%
£412,255
2.10%
01/07/18
£485,001
1.04%
£414,622
0.57%
01/08/18
£479,991
-1.03%
£425,603
2.65%
01/09/18
£476,631
-0.70%
£426,569
0.23%
01/10/18
£480,321
0.77%
£422,624
-0.92%
01/11/18
£474,258
-1.26%
£408,781
-3.28%
01/12/18
£473,802
-0.10%
£406,682
-0.51%
01/01/19
£471,336
-0.52%
£412,824
1.51%
01/02/19
£464,998
-1.34%
£411,835
-0.24%
01/03/19
£463,283
-0.37%
£414,972
0.76%
01/04/19
£470,616
1.58%
£434,268
4.65%
01/05/19
£467,081
-0.75%
£452,902
4.29%
01/06/19
£466,892
-0.04%
£452,677
-0.05%
01/07/19
£466,142
-0.16%
£449,851
-0.62%
01/08/19
£465,989
-0.03%
£446,319
-0.79%
01/09/19
£467,493
0.32%
£442,030
-0.96%
01/10/19
£470,705
0.69%
£445,076
0.69%
01/11/19
£471,791
0.23%
£438,132
-1.56%
01/12/19
£470,529
-0.27%
£443,414
1.21%
01/01/20
£474,833
0.91%
£440,324
-0.70%
01/02/20
£475,933
0.23%
£445,658
1.21%
01/03/20
£475,191
-0.16%
£443,841
-0.41%
01/04/20
£483,479
1.74%
£446,364
0.57%
01/05/20
£482,052
-0.30%
£448,539
0.49%
01/06/20
£478,833
-0.67%
£453,033
1.00%
01/07/20
£476,784
-0.43%
£454,243
0.27%
01/08/20
£471,369
-1.14%
£450,406
-0.84%
01/09/20
£471,921
0.12%
£441,623
-1.95%
01/10/20
£474,815
0.61%
£427,168
-3.27%
01/11/20
£472,922
-0.40%
£427,633
0.11%
01/12/20
£467,476
-1.15%
£427,978
0.08%
01/01/21
£471,948
0.96%
£431,711
0.87%
01/02/21
£473,412
0.31%
£435,834
0.96%
01/03/21
£475,052
0.35%
£445,004
2.10%
01/04/21
£479,990
1.04%
£447,560
0.57%
01/05/21
£475,032
-1.03%
£459,413
2.65%
01/06/21
£471,706
-0.70%
£460,456
0.23%
01/07/21
£475,358
0.77%
£456,197
-0.92%
01/08/21
£469,358
-1.26%
£441,255
-3.28%
01/09/21
£468,906
-0.10%
£438,988
-0.51%
01/10/21
£466,466
-0.52%
£445,619
1.51%
01/11/21
£460,193
-1.34%
£444,551
-0.24%
01/12/21
£458,496
-0.37%
£447,938
0.76%
01/01/22
£465,753
1.58%
£468,766
4.65%

 

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