UK house prices currently 8% over-valued but on track to be 1.5% higher by the end of 2024

  • House price inflation is flat at 0% in May 2024 but UK house prices are on track to be 1.5% (£3,900) higher by the end of 2024

  • UK house prices are currently 8% ‘over-valued’ but will be ‘fairly valued’ by the end of the year due to rising incomes

  • House prices rising across all areas over the last 3 months to May 2024, however, on annual basis house price growth remains negative across southern England, but rising elsewhere

  • Home buyers and sellers largely un-deterred by election campaign

  • Demand (6%) and sales agreed (8%) both higher than this time last year

  • 75% of the 1.1 million sales projected for this year are either complete or in the sales pipeline

UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 00.01 FRIDAY 28TH JUNE, LONDON: UK house prices are on track to be 1.5% higher by the end of 2024 as incomes growth steadily eases the impact of higher mortgage rates, say Zoopla in the latest House Price Index. Homebuyers are largely shrugging off the election with new sales agreed 8% higher, with demand up 6% and a fifth (19%) more homes for sale than a year ago.

There are signs that market activity is beginning to seasonally slow. Sales agreed are down slightly month on month across all regions, led by the North East (-6%) and West Midlands (-5%) as the overall stock of homes for sale continues to grow across all areas, albeit at a slower rate than recent months.

Housing remains over-valued but the trend is improving

Zoopla has a long run model that tracks whether UK house prices are too expensive or fairly valued. This highlights how UK home prices were more than 50% over-valued in the run up to the global financial crisis in 2007, and even more over-priced in the late 1980s housing boom. In both these cases, economic recession led to double digit house price falls.

Latest analysis finds that the jump in mortgage rates over 2023 led to UK house prices becoming over-valued by 13% at the end of 2023. This more modest over-valuation of home prices explains why there have been modest annual price falls over the last year compared to previous periods.

Currently, UK house prices are estimated to be 8% over-valued (Q1 2024) but by the end of the year, this over-valuation will disappear, assuming that house prices rise 1.5% and mortgage rates remain at 4.5%. Rising incomes and longer mortgage terms are helping to improve affordability which will, in turn, support the continued improvement in sales volumes and single digit house price growth over H2 2024.

75% of this years’ sales are completed or in progress

In contrast to reduced sales throughout 2023, Zoopla data shows that the market remains on track for 1.1 million sales in 2024. 75% of these sales expected in 2024 are either completed or agreed and working toward a completion – with a quarter of a million sales yet to be agreed. The 1.1 million sale figure is 10% higher than 2023 but still below the 20-year average, however rising sales are positive and show more realism on the part of sellers and renewed, cautious confidence amongst buyers.

Interest rates hold the key

Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for the sales market will depend on the outlook for mortgage rates which are a function of the outlook for interest rates. Based on city forecasts for base rates, mortgage rates are expected to remain in the 4-4.5% range which is sufficient to support sales volumes and low, single digit levels of house price growth.

House prices in the south of England are expected to continue to under-perform the UK average as they re-align with incomes as income growth is the key to supporting sales and demand into 2025.  Price falls are currently greatest in the Eastern region (-1.4%) and South East (-1%), with Canterbury in Kent topping the list with the biggest price fall (-4.1%). Prices are rising by up to 3.3% in Northern Ireland and 1.5% in the North West region, with Sunderland experiencing +5.2% price increase..

Commenting on the latest report, Richard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla says:  “The housing market continues to adjust to higher borrowing costs through modest house price falls and rising incomes.  Buyers using mortgages are also relying on longer mortgage terms to gain that extra few percentage points of buying power to afford a home.

The general election campaign has had a limited impact on market activity although the seasonal summer slowdown is arriving. Sales agreed continued to increase and more homes for sale means more buyers looking to move in the second half of the year. The timing of the first cut in the base rate is a key moment and will give a boost to both market sentiment and sales activity. Overall we expect house prices to be 1.5% higher over 2024”

Foxtons CEO, Guy Gittins, commented:  “While house price inflation in May is flat, as you could rightly expect before an election, it should be noted that we’ve seen consistently positive demand and sales agreed activity across 2024. With forecast house price rises now roughly in line with current inflation rates, it’s still very clear that property ownership is high on the agenda for hundreds of thousands of people across the UK.

Certainly in London, the market is considerably more active today than last year and crucially, aspiring property owners and sellers are undeterred by the looming election. Historically, when we see this as a trend, it continues to deliver a strong market post-election. With people’s confidence high after the summer, and an expected interest rate cut, the market could be very busy through to the end of the year.”

EAN Content

Content shared by this account is either news shared free by third parties or sponsored (paid for) content from third parties. Please be advised that links to third party websites are not endorsed by Estate Agent Networking - Please do your own research before committing to any third party business promoted on our website. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases.

You May Also Enjoy

Breaking News

Homeowners in England and Wales overvalue their properties by an average of 16%

Homeowners in England and Wales are overestimating the value of their property by an average of 16%, according to new figures. Data from Quick Move Now compares homeowner estimates with formal estate agent valuations and is broken down by both region and property type. Overall, homeowners overvalue in every single category.   Regional breakdown Region…
Read More
Visual blemishes on Roads due to service upgrades
Estate Agent Talk

Emergency Sidewalk Repairs: When to Act and Who to Call

Sidewalks are the unsung heroes of city infrastructure—quietly assisting tens of millions of footsteps every day. But when they crack, disintegrate, or shift all of sudden, they might quickly turn out to be volatile liabilities. In a town like New York, in which pedestrian site visitors are constant and belongings proprietors are legally chargeable for…
Read More
Breaking News

Reapit report reveals agents’ long-term market confidence amid legislative challenges

Despite the significant challenges posed by a shifting economic landscape and the largest wave of housing legislation in decades, estate and letting agents remain steadfast in their confidence about their long-term future in the industry. According to the first Reapit Property Outlook Report 2025, covering the full breadth of sales and lettings agency opinion countrywide,…
Read More
Breaking News

Owner-Occupiers Drive Resilient Commercial Property Market

Buying Becomes 37% Cheaper Than Renting The latest Commercial Property Demand Index from specialist property finance expert, Rangewell, reveals that while investor appetite across the sector held steady in Q2, strong levels of owner-occupied commercial mortgage activity are helping drive market performance, as business owners increasingly move from renting to buying their long-term premises for…
Read More
Breaking News

One year of Labour: Property market performance review

Investors left waiting for planning reform and incentives but majority plan to increase real estate allocation   Biggest failures: Lack of incentives for developers and investors, and ineffective planning reform Top priorities: Planning reform, tax incentives, and attracting international capital Where opportunities lie: Data centres, warehousing & logistics, and later-life housing Real estate debt is…
Read More
Estate Agent Talk

Plumbing Red Flags Every Homebuyer Should Watch Out For

Buying a home is one of the most significant investments a person can make. While factors like location, square footage, and curb appeal often steal the spotlight, what’s hidden behind the walls is just as important—especially the plumbing. Overlooking plumbing issues during the home-buying process can lead to costly surprises down the road. That’s why…
Read More