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Latest delays could derail Crossrail property prices by a further £100k by 2021

The latest research by leading estate agent comparison website, GetAgent.co.uk, has looked at the impact Crossrail has had on the property market surrounding stations due to benefit from the route and how delays to the project’s delivery could impact house prices going forward.

When construction first started on the project in May 2009, the average house price around areas due to benefit with a Crossrail station was £305,442. Over the next nine years, price growth along the route exploded by 95%, an increase of 0.8% for each of the 112 months, putting the new average property cost at £595,061.

However, in September 2018 it was then announced that the delivery of the project would be delayed and in the months that followed to January 2019 (the latest data available), the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations has fallen by -3.1%.

That’s an average monthly drop of -0.8% for each of the four months with Bond Street, Tottenham Court Road and Woolwich worst hit with prices surrounding these stations down by more than 28%.

Last week it was announced that Crossrail is unlikely to open until 2021, and so this negative trend could remain for the next two years. Should the average monthly decrease of -0.8% persist over the next two years, it would see the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations fall from its current level of £576,340 to £475,290, a loss of £101,050 in property values.

Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, Colby Short, commented: 

“The turbulent ride for those living around stations due to benefit from Crossrail continues, as yet more delays are likely to see prices fall further.

The Crossrail project is set to be a gamechanger when it comes to traversing the London landscape and the initial scramble to buy along the line brought some pretty meteoric house price increases. But as a consistent string of delays has set in, this urgency has seeped away and as a result, the high levels of house price growth have followed suit.

Should this persist over the next two years, there could be a serious re-levelling of the Crossrail market. However, even if this were to ring true, the average Crossrail house price would still be some £170,00 more than when construction first started.

Those living along the line should rest assured that the long-term benefits of doing so will far outweigh the current inconvenience of yet another London transport link failing to run on time.

When it does open, the Crossrail influence is certain to bring high-speed house price growth with it and some areas, such as Liverpool Street, Gidea Park, Twyford and more, are already bucking the wider trends of political uncertainty to register strong price growth at present.”

Time Period
Months
Original house price
Total Change (%)
Total Change (£)
Average Monthly Change (%)
Start of Crossrail construction (01.05.09)
112
£305,442
95%
£289,619
0.8%
First delays announced (01.09.18)
£595,061
First delays announced (01.09.18)*
5
£595,061
-3.1%
-£18,721
-0.8%
Now (01.01.19)*
£576,340
Now (01.01.19)
24
£576,340
-17.5%
-£101,050
-0.8%**
Suspected delays until 2021 (01.01.2021)
£475,290**
* latest Land Registry house price data point available

**is the projected monthly loss on the average Crossrail house price between January 2019 and January 2021 (24 months at a monthly reduction of -0.8%)

 

Crossrail Station
Outcode
Average House Price – Crossrail Start (May 2009)
<% Change>
Average House Price – First delays announced (September 2018)
<% Change>
Now – January 2019
Liverpool Street
EC2
£480,250
20%
£576,714
54%
£889,542
Gidea Park
RM2
£344,889
27%
£437,136
30%
£570,420
Twyford
RG10
£367,104
49%
£545,255
30%
£708,333
Hanwell
W7
£275,850
99%
£550,171
24%
£681,286
Whitechapel
E1
£316,008
78%
£561,728
22%
£687,400
Farringdon
EC1
£439,300
47%
£643,990
20%
£773,235
Ealing Broadway
W5
£430,074
91%
£820,845
19%
£976,646
Forest Gate
E7
£181,923
133%
£424,209
19%
£503,375
West Ealing
W13
£370,375
77%
£653,813
14%
£747,275
Acton Main Line
W3
£352,840
57%
£552,834
10%
£607,800
West Drayton
UB7
£178,538
104%
£364,938
10%
£400,998
Custom House
E16
£224,526
108%
£467,439
6%
£494,800
Brentwood
CM14
£233,640
76%
£410,933
5%
£431,357
Reading
RG1
£199,088
48%
£293,905
4%
£306,633
Romford
RM1
£192,268
72%
£329,936
4%
£343,669
Canary Wharf
E14
£370,696
32%
£490,943
3%
£506,949
Maryland
E15
£207,300
120%
£455,757
3%
£470,367
Stratford
E15
£207,300
120%
£455,757
3%
£470,367
Ilford
IG1
£227,842
73%
£395,294
0%
£396,278
Abbey Wood
SE2
£181,667
81%
£328,588
-1%
£323,920
Manor Park
E12
£155,357
145%
£380,629
-2%
£374,318
Taplow
SL6
£325,326
60%
£520,843
-4%
£501,451
Maidenhead
SL6
£325,326
60%
£520,843
-4%
£501,451
Hayes and Harlington
UB3
£193,103
90%
£367,780
-6%
£346,132
Chadwell Heath
RM6
£191,600
70%
£325,680
-7%
£304,134
Slough
SL1
£233,499
50%
£349,928
-8%
£321,858
Burnham
SL1
£233,499
50%
£349,928
-8%
£321,858
Goodmayes
IG3
£213,018
102%
£430,262
-10%
£389,083
Seven Kings
IG3
£213,018
102%
£430,262
-10%
£389,083
Harold Wood
RM3
£179,179
97%
£352,484
-10%
£316,095
Paddington
W2
£725,861
124%
£1,622,487
-11%
£1,448,076
Shenfield
CM15
£251,382
116%
£542,242
-11%
£483,167
Southall
UB2
£197,800
112%
£420,197
-16%
£354,000
Langley
SL3
£225,809
104%
£461,741
-16%
£388,368
Iver
SL0
£363,409
81%
£658,975
-22%
£515,083
Woolwich
SE18
£222,586
100%
£444,817
-28%
£320,042
Tottenham Court Road
W1
£787,768
197%
£2,336,522
-29%
£1,668,038
Bond Street
W1
£787,768
197%
£2,336,522
-29%
£1,668,038
Average Crossrail House Prices
£305,442
95%
£595,061
-3.10%
£576,340
*Heathrow terminal stations not  included due to lack of residential housing surrounding each station
** house price data pulled for station outcode to include property prices in the immediate surrounding area and not the area as whole

 

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