Nationwide: Strong end to the year for UK house prices
- UK house prices up 4.7% year on year in December
- Northern regions see higher price growth than southern regions
- Northern Ireland best performing area for second year running, with prices up 7.1% over 2024
- East Anglia weakest performing region, with prices up 0.5% over the year
| Headlines | Dec-24 | Nov-24 |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Index* | 540.8 | 536.8 |
| Monthly Change* | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| Annual Change | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Average Price
(not seasonally adjusted) |
£269,426 | £268,144 |
* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
“UK house prices ended 2024 on a strong footing, up 4.7% compared with December 2023, though prices were still just below the all-time high recorded in summer 2022. House prices increased by 0.7% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 1.2% rise in November.
Looking back on 2024
“Mortgage market activity and house prices proved surprisingly resilient in 2024 given the ongoing affordability challenges facing potential buyers. At the start of the year, house prices remained high relative to average earnings, which meant that the deposit hurdle remained high for prospective first-time buyers. This is a challenge that had been made worse by record rates of rental growth in recent years, which has hampered the ability of many in the private rented sector to save.
“Moreover, for many of those with sufficient savings for a deposit, meeting monthly payments was a stretch because borrowing costs remained well above those prevailing in the aftermath of the pandemic. For example, a typical mortgage rate for someone with a 25 per cent deposit hovered around 4.5% for much of the year, three times the 1.5% prevailing in late 2021, before the Bank of England started to raise the Bank Rate.
“As a result, it was encouraging that activity levels in the housing market increased over the course of 2024 with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase each month rising above pre-pandemic levels towards the end of the year.
Where next in 2025?
“Upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes. This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.
“But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth. The latter is likely to return to the 2-4% range in 2025 once stamp duty related volatility subsides.
All regions saw house price growth in 2024
“Our regional house price indices are produced quarterly, with data for Q4 (the three months to December) indicating that all regions saw price rises over 2024 (see full table below).
“Northern Ireland was the best performing area for the second year running, with prices up 7.1% over the year. Scotland recorded a 4.4% increase in 2024, whilst Wales saw a 2.7% year-on-year rise.
“Across England overall, prices were up 3.1%, compared with Q4 2024. There was a clear north-south divide in house price performance in 2024 as Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) continued to outperform southern England, with prices up 4.9% year on year. The North was the best performing English region, with prices up 5.9% year on year.
“Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) saw a 2.2% year-on-year rise. The South West was the best performing southern region with annual price growth of 2.7%. East Anglia was the weakest performing UK region in 2024, with a modest 0.5% annual increase.
Property type review
“Our most recent data by property type reveals that terraced houses have seen the biggest percentage rise in prices over the last year, with average prices up 4.4% in 2024.
“Flats saw a recovery in price growth, recording their best year since 2021, with a 4.0% rise. Semi-detached properties recorded a 3.4% annual increase, while detached properties saw a 3.2% year-on-year rise.
“However, if we look over the longer term, detached homes have continued to have a slight edge over other property types, most likely due to the ‘race for space’ seen during the pandemic. Indeed, since Q1 2020, the price of an average detached property increased by nearly 27%, while flats have only risen by c15% over the same period.”
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Nationwide: Strong end to the year for UK house prices
