Surge of off-market homes set to hit the market
Thousands of off-market homes could be set to hit the market as homeowner pressure builds
The latest analysis by eXp UK has highlighted a growing pool of potential off-market property opportunities, with more than 21,000 homeowners across England and Wales now showing signs of pressure that could prompt them to sell before ever listing their property through traditional channels.
eXp UK analysed* the latest proprietary data from GalimAI, which monitors public records covering more than one million UK property owners. The platform tracks factors including expiring low-rate mortgages, EPC compliance, insolvency, probate, tribunal decisions, vacancy and leverage to identify homeowners most likely to sell before reaching the open market.
The research identifies an estimated 21,669 homeowners currently under pressure across ten major cities, with London accounting for by far the largest share at 13,105 properties, representing more than £7.1bn worth of residential stock.
The capital is also home to the largest number of homeowners whose low-cost mortgage deals secured during 2021 are due to expire this year, with an estimated 4,128 owners facing the prospect of refinancing at considerably higher rates. A further 1,759 landlords own properties that currently fall below the required EPC standard ahead of the proposed 2030 deadline, while another 7,218 homeowners are flagged due to other pressure indicators monitored by GalimAI.
Outside of London, Manchester ranks second with 2,188 homeowners identified as being under pressure. More than two thirds (1,517) are homeowners whose cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals are coming to an end this year, with a further 664 landlords facing EPC upgrade requirements.
Nottingham is home to the third largest number of potential off-market opportunities, with 1,365 homeowners identified, followed by Birmingham (1,215), Liverpool (1,116) and Leeds (1,009). Newcastle (534), Bristol (411), Sheffield (378) and Cardiff (348) also feature amongst the cities with the highest concentration of homeowners under pressure.
Based on current average house prices, the estimated value of these potential off-market opportunities exceeds £9bn across the ten cities analysed.
Adam Day, Head of eXp UK and Europe, commented:
“Not every homeowner identified by this research will decide to sell, but it provides a fascinating insight into where tomorrow’s housing supply could emerge before it ever reaches the open market.
The combination of higher mortgage costs, changing regulation for landlords and wider financial pressures is creating circumstances where many homeowners may decide that selling is their best option over the coming months.
Historically, agents have only become involved once that decision has already been made. Increasingly, however, technology is allowing us to identify potential sellers much earlier, creating opportunities to have meaningful conversations before a property ever reaches the market.
In a market where winning instructions has never been more competitive, understanding where future opportunities are likely to come from is becoming just as important as competing for the instructions that are already visible.”
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