Annual house price growth rebounds in November
- UK house prices rose 1.2% month on month
- Annual growth rate rebounded to 3.7%, from 2.4% in October – fastest since November 2022
- House prices now just 1% below all-time peak
| Headlines | Nov-24 | Oct-24 |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly Index* | 536.6 | 530.4 |
| Monthly Change* | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Annual Change | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Average Price
(not seasonally adjusted) |
£268,144 | £265,738 |
* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
“The price of a typical UK home rose by 3.7% year on year in November, a strong rebound from the 2.4% recorded the previous month and marking the fastest rate of annual growth for two years (November 2022). House prices increased by a robust 1.2% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. House prices are just 1% below the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022.
“The acceleration in house price growth is surprising, since affordability remains stretched by historic standards, with house prices still high relative to average incomes and interest rates well above pre-Covid levels.
“The pickup in price growth is unlikely to have been driven by upcoming stamp duty changes[1], since the majority of mortgage applications commenced before the Budget announcement.
“Housing market activity has remained relatively resilient in recent months, with the number of mortgage approvals approaching the levels seen pre-pandemic, despite the higher interest rate environment.
“Solid labour market conditions, with low levels of unemployment and strong income gains, even after taking account of inflation, have helped underpin a steady rise in activity and house prices since the start of the year. Household balance sheets are also in good shape with debt levels at their lowest levels relative to household income since the mid-2000s (see chart).
“Gauging the underlying strength of the market will be more difficult in the coming months as the upcoming stamp duty changes will provide an incentive for buyers to bring forward house purchases to avoid paying additional tax.
“This is likely to lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes. This has the potential to shift the demand/supply balance in the near term and impact price movements.
“But, providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, the underlying pace of housing market activity is likely to continue to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth.”
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