Rightmove House Price Index: Decade-high choice to benefit Spring buyers who miss stamp duty deadline
- The average price of property coming to market for sale rises by 1.1% (+£3,876) this month to £371,870, in line with the long-term March average increase, as many new sellers price sensibly amid decade-high competition to sell:
- While new Spring buyers will not beat this month’s stamp duty deadline, they will benefit from the highest property choice at this time of year since 2015
- Massive log-jam of 575,000 moves in the legal completion process, with many trying to beat March’s stamp duty deadline
- Despite ongoing global uncertainty, the property market remains resilient, with positive signs of growth heading into Spring:
- The number of sales being agreed is 9% higher than at this time in 2024, a positive sign for the market post-stamp-duty increase, and the number of new sellers is now 8% ahead of this time last year
- Mortgage rates remain only fractionally lower than at this time last year as buyer affordability remains stretched, and Rightmove welcomes proposals by the regulator to look at ways responsible lending can be simplified:
- The average five-year fixed mortgage rate is now 4.74%, down from the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, but only marginally lower than the 4.84% at this time last year
The average price of property coming to the market for sale rises by 1.1% (+£3,876) this month to £371,870, which is in line with the long-term March average increase. It shows that many new sellers are pricing sensibly, rather than getting carried away with over-optimistic pricing that is often associated with the traditionally buoyant Spring market. Highlighting the importance of the typically busy March market, Rightmove’s research shows that historically, February and March are the best months to come to market for sellers. This is based on the highest proportion of homes listed in these months going on to find a buyer. However, new Spring sellers may find it more challenging this year, as they are competing against a decade-high number of other sellers. New Spring buyers on the other hand, are looking at the best choice of properties for sale at this time of year since 2015. This is some consolation for these new buyers who won’t benefit from the current additional stamp duty savings in England, and who face higher tax charges from April.
“Historic averages show that this March is likely to be one of the strongest months of the year for sellers to spring into action. However, sellers can’t just rely on these historic averages for success, as this year they are facing a decade-high level of competition. Those who are successfully finding buyers right now are working hard with their agents to price competitively and present their home in the best possible light. The big milestone ahead in England is the stamp duty deadline, and with a massive log-jam of 575,000 moves going through the legal completion process, many cost-conscious buyers will be doing all they can to get their move over the line and avoid unnecessary extra tax. Whilst agents tell us that they have been working with both sellers and buyers to factor in the additional charges, many movers are understandably hoping to reduce their tax bill and keep their savings for themselves.”
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove
The 575,000 homes going through the legal completion process represents a large proportion of Rightmove’s prediction of 1.15 million final transactions for the whole of 2025. Those movers who are based in England will likely be trying to beat March’s stamp duty deadline as it draws closer. Rightmove’s stamp duty report identifies an estimated 74,000 moves, which includes 25,000 first-time buyers, that will just miss the March 31st deadline, and complete in April instead. Should they complete in April, it will be at a combined cost of £142 million in extra tax. The hope of an extension is fading, but with the Spring Statement arriving just before the deadline, this would be an opportune moment to announce a short extension to help these movers, who had a reasonable expectation of beating the stamp duty deadline, but due to delays in the process will just miss out.
So far this year the property market has remained stable and resilient despite the global turbulence and uncertainty. The data suggests that this is set to continue in the short term at least, as there are positive statistics for home-moving activity as the market heads into Spring. The number of sales being agreed is 9% higher than at this time in 2024, and the number of new sellers is now 8% ahead of this time last year. Both are positive signs for continued market activity after stamp duty increases at the start of April.
Persistently high mortgage rates are dampening some of the market optimism and activity, proving stickier than many expected and still very susceptible to economic uncertainty. According to Rightmove’s weekly mortgage tracker, the average five-year fixed mortgage rate is now 4.74%, which is reduced from the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, but is only a marginal improvement on the 4.84% of this time last year. Rightmove welcomes proposals by the mortgage regulator to look at ways responsible lending can be simplified. This includes encouraging lenders to stress test appropriately, making mortgage processes easier for home-movers, and in the longer-term, looking at responsible ways that first-time buyers could be permitted to borrow more. However, change can take time, and any lowering of mortgage rates will be of more immediate benefit to home-movers.
“The pipeline of sales going through the completion process, as well as new sales being agreed, are signs of the strength of the important Spring housing market. It’s encouraging to see new activity continue to track above last year’s level. One of the clouds hanging over the market is persistently high mortgage rates. While there’s now more of an understanding among movers that rates aren’t heading back to previously ultra-low levels, many will have been hoping that they would drop more quickly.”
Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove
Experts’ views
“We’re still seeing lenders price competitively where they can to secure mortgage business at this typically busy time of year. However, the economic turbulence happening globally is impacting mortgage rates, and we’re seeing some small rate fluctuations on a week-by-week basis. Most affected are rates for those with the smallest deposits, which is a double whammy for first-time buyers and those who need to borrow more. We’ve got the next interest rate decision coming up from the Bank of England, and the current expectation is that we’ll see a hold, followed by a cut in May. However, we’ve already seen this year how quickly things can change, so a lot will depend on other economic news we have between the two Bank of England meetings.”
Matt Smith, mortgage expert at Rightmove
“The year has gotten off to a good start, with a marked increase in the number of homes coming to the market in comparison to last year. Despite the wider economic outlook appearing to hold some uncertainty, the message we have received from sellers is that they are tired of sitting on the fence and really want to get on with moving this year.
“We may well see an impact on the entry level of the market as the nil rate threshold drops, however, many buyers seem to be fairly relaxed about the imminent stamp duty changes from the 1st April. Stamp duty at all levels has become a cost to be swallowed and we don’t forecast this to have a major impact on activity in the market.
“Realistic pricing is key when it comes to the current market, and particularly in countryside locations, price sensitivity is still prevalent. The most testing part of the market is the upper end, where realistic pricing is particularly important. This is where sellers need to be mindful of not overpricing if they are looking for a successful sale.”
Sarah Bush, Head of Residential Sales and Lettings at Cheffins
“The market is performing well, and the number of property exchanges we’re seeing is ahead of last year. Despite the upcoming changes to Stamp Duty, we haven’t seen any slowdown in buyers’ appetites to purchase a home, even now knowing that they won’t meet the deadline of 31st March.
“The beginning of this year has seen overall growth in the sales market, with more sellers bringing their homes to market. Some stability in interest rates and modest house price growth have certainly helped to increase confidence from both buyers and sellers, and overall attitudes towards moving home are positive. Pricing is still key and setting realistic asking prices is vital to achieving the best sale.”
Chris Rosindale, Chief Operating Officer at Connells Group
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